Which Running Backs Offer the Best Value Beyond the Top Five?

The 2026 NFL season is set to begin in under two weeks, with fantasy football managers finalizing draft strategies as preseason concludes and depth charts stabilize. SportsLine conducted 10,000 simulations of the upcoming campaign to project player performance and identify value picks. Early average draft position shows Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja' Marr Chase, Jonathan Taylor, and Puka Nacua as the top five selections. Ashton Jeanty and Drake London are also gaining attention as potential high-upside options based on the model’s output.

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The simulation model that accurately predicted Daniel Jones’ unexpected 2023 surge is being relied upon again for 2026 projections, using adjusted variables for roster changes, coaching shifts, and injury history. Analysts note that the model emphasizes opportunity and touchdown volume over raw yardage, which helps uncover undervalued running backs and receivers in favorable situations. Jeanty’s increased role in Las Vegas and London’s growing target share in Atlanta are cited as key factors driving their rise in fantasy rankings. The approach avoids overreliance on past performance, instead weighting situational context and offensive scheme fit.

How Reliable Are Preseason Rankings This Early in the Cycle?

Beyond the elite tier, the model highlights several running backs poised for breakout seasons due to expanded roles or favorable matchups. Jahmyr Gibbs’ efficiency in Detroit’s passing game and Bijan Robinson’s versatility in Atlanta continue to make them safe early-round anchors. However, the simulation suggests that late-round fliers on players like Jahmyr Gibbs’ backup or a third-down specialist in a high-tempo offense could yield disproportionate returns. The model particularly favors backs in pass-heavy schemes where goal-line work is shared, increasing touchdown volatility and fantasy upside.

While preseason rankings provide a useful starting point, the model stresses that volatility remains high due to uncertain quarterback play, rookie integration, and preseason injury reports. SportsLine advises managers to treat early ADP as a guide rather than a rule, especially for players whose roles depend on training camp battles or coaching decisions still unresolved. The simulation updates weekly as new data emerges, meaning today’s sleeper could become tomorrow’s bust—or vice versa—based on snap counts and red-zone usage trends observed in August practices.

What does the 10,000-simulation model actually measure? It projects fantasy points per game by simulating offensive drives, red-zone efficiency, and touchdown probability based on player usage, opponent strength, and game script likelihood.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are Ashton Jeanty and Drake London trending upward in rankings? Jeanty is projected to see increased carries in Las Vegas due to a committee backfield with clear goal-line favors, while London benefits from a new offensive coordinator prioritizing deep targets in Atlanta.

Should fantasy managers draft based solely on these simulations? No, the model is a tool to inform decisions, not replace them; managers should still monitor camp reports, preseason snaps, and coaching tendencies before finalizing picks.