Who Wins When the College Football Playoff Expands to 24 Teams? Spoiler: It’s Not the Fans

Money, Not Fans, Drive the 24‑Team Expansion

For years, pundits cautioned that expanding the playoff would destroy the regular season. A four‑team format preserved quality, and a 12‑team field still kept the race meaningful. But the jump to 24 teams marks a point where the sport has crossed into irrationality. Leaders in college football have done everything in their power to „heal the soul” of the sport in exchange for more money in recent years. This leap to 24 teams is a direct blow to the heart of competition.

What the Bubble Looked Like Last Year

The last at‑large spot would have gone to Iowa, 8‑4. The Hawkeyes lost all four games against top‑25 AP teams. Georgia Tech, 9‑3, beat Clemson, but the Tigers finished 7‑6. The rest of the list included Michigan (9‑3), Duke (8‑5) and Illinois (8‑4).

Fans Will See Quality Drop Off Quickly

There is a misconception that postseason access brings more attention and focus to programs that make the playoffs. In reality, fans will soon discover that the product they’re offered will drop sharply. They’ll be expected to watch a mediocre game between Tennessee (ranked 14) and USC (ranked 19) and move on. Astonishingly, there is no clear evidence that the playoff will bring additional financial gain. Conferences will lose tens of millions in broadcast rights after canceling conference title games, with no guarantee of extra profit.

Why the Expansion Happens

The answer is simple. Tens of millions in donations are invested annually in mid‑tier slots, and it’s time to create profitability for investors. According to 247 Sports data, Auburn, Nebraska and Wisconsin spend over $30 million on their slots. Rutgers, South Carolina and Arkansas rely on more than $20 million. None of these schools had a realistic path to a 12‑team playoff. In a 24‑team world, they still wouldn’t have made it, but they could at least believe a path existed. Thus, expanding the playoff allows schools like South Carolina and Maryland to spin donors’ money and pretend the money isn’t in the fire.

Overall Product Quality Is a Limited Concern

There is one problem: everyone will quickly find out it’s a sham. Coaches will be fired even if their teams make the playoff, or even after winning first‑round games. Neither fans nor donors will be soothed by a mediocre team that merely reaches the postseason. The chance that coaches will sign unjustified extensions, tying fans to prolonged suffering, is much higher.

Individual Games Lose Their Shine

Games like Notre Dame vs. BYU or Ohio State vs. Indiana this week lose their luster when they become simple checks with limited stakes. A 12‑team playoff created short‑ and long‑term stakes; all of that disappears in a 24‑team system for many Power‑Four teams. By making the national championship the sole indicator of success, the fabric that makes this sport special is destroyed. Winning a conference title should matter. Losing a direct rival should matter. It should be more than a massive run to exhaust fans and donors.

The FCS Model Shows a Possible Path

The FCS offers at least a model for how a 24‑team playoff could make sense. The 11 non‑HBCU conferences each receive an automatic invitation to the postseason, making the conference championship race crucial. This imposes a certain breadth across the sport. Naturally, there is no consideration for the Group of Six at this point. The sport’s leaders only care about accumulating access. Reaching the postseason should be hard in college football. There should be consequences for regular‑season games. But with a 24‑team playoff on the horizon, it’s hard not to ask: What is the purpose here?